Technological Drivers
Algorithmic Innovations and Breakthroughs (32/41)
None
9
Low
0
Medium
8
High
24
Compute Scaling and Hardware Advances (32/41)
None
9
Low
0
Medium
10
High
22
Transparency and Interpretability Tools (22/41)
None
19
Low
1
Medium
6
High
15
Defense-Favoring AI Capabilities (14/41)
None
27
Low
1
Medium
6
High
7
Economic Drivers
Economic Automation and Labor Market Transformation (30/41)
None
11
Low
3
Medium
5
High
22
Productivity Gains from AI (24/41)
None
17
Low
0
Medium
11
High
13
Winner-Take-All Competitive Dynamics (24/41)
None
17
Low
0
Medium
10
High
14
Declining Costs in AI and Computing (21/41)
None
20
Low
4
Medium
13
High
4
Organizational Drivers
Institutional Learning and Adaptation (26/41)
None
15
Low
1
Medium
8
High
17
Inter-Lab Competition (26/41)
None
15
Low
1
Medium
13
High
12
Lab Safety and Security Culture (24/41)
None
17
Low
1
Medium
9
High
14
Open Source vs. Closed Development Strategies (22/41)
None
19
Low
1
Medium
11
High
10
Corporate AI Competition and Lobbying (14/41)
None
27
Low
1
Medium
7
High
6
Governance Drivers
International Coordination Challenges (36/41)
None
5
Low
0
Medium
18
High
18
Hybrid Governance Structures (24/41)
None
17
Low
1
Medium
6
High
17
Surveillance and Control Capabilities (21/41)
None
20
Low
2
Medium
11
High
8
Safety & Alignment Drivers
General Alignment Problem Difficulty (33/41)
None
7
Low
4
Medium
7
High
22
Human Oversight Limitations at Scale (29/41)
None
12
Low
2
Medium
9
High
18
Deceptive Alignment Risks (21/41)
None
20
Low
3
Medium
4
High
14
Value Alignment Strategies (21/41)
None
20
Low
0
Medium
7
High
14
Geopolitical Drivers
International AI Arms Race Dynamics (28/41)
None
13
Low
2
Medium
8
High
18
US-China AI Competition (26/41)
None
15
Low
5
Medium
5
High
16
Corporate/Economic Power Influencing Governance (16/41)
None
25
Low
1
Medium
5
High
10
Societal Drivers
Public Trust and Acceptance (28/41)
None
13
Low
1
Medium
19
High
8